The Optionality Trap

A member in one of my accountability calls told me a story about a time she was struggling. She used to smoke. She'd tried to quit more times than she could count. Then, at a doctor's appointment, something clicked. Instead of telling her she should quit, the doctor asked her something like: "So when do you think you'll be ready?" He followed it with, "It's not like this is going to get easier, and it's not like your health is going to improve while you wait. So when will you know you're ready?"

It's funny how wording like that gets through when a hundred other versions of "you should really quit" haven't. It won't land for everyone, but sometimes you just need the right lightbulb moment.

So today I want to talk about a concept I call the optionality trap.

In finance, optionality is the right, but not the obligation, to make a move at a set price within a set time. When it comes to moving your body, you have that same right. You can exercise. Sure some people have very real limitations, but nobody's stopping you. But at the same time, you don't have an obligation to exercise. 

And there’s the problem; in treating something you really should do as something you don't have to do right now.

If you've worked with me through WeightWatchers, you know I'm not a hardcore person. I'm never going to tell you the only real workout is an intense hour four days a week. That's not me. But I do believe exercise is important, and I believe everyone should be doing something.

The issue is that most people default to optionality when they should be defaulting to commitment.

There are a handful of things in life where you technically have a choice, but skipping it long enough causes real problems. You don't have to show up to work, but eventually you'll get fired. You don't have to brush your teeth, but eventually you'll get tooth decay. You don't have to save for retirement, but eventually you'll struggle financially. And yes, you don't have to exercise, but eventually you'll deal with pain, reduced function, and poor health.

The bill always comes due when we act like we have an option.

Commitment is the opposite of optionality. It's where you take the illusion of choice off the table. And again, this isn't me going hardcore on you. It's actually the opposite. A commitment is your non-negotiable. It could be ten minutes of intentional movement a day. Anything past that is a bonus. But removing optionality means you set a standard and you follow it.

Here's why that's harder than it sounds, and what actually helps.

Say I took a full year off from contributing to my 401k. At the moment, that feels great. More money to spend on whatever I want right now. But at what cost? If I want to retire at 65, I just cost myself somewhere between $175,000 and $200,000, inflation adjusted. If I was 10 years younger, it would be way more! Basically two years of retirement spending, gone.

Exercise works the same way, just quieter. Skip today's workout and technically nothing bad happens. You actually get time back. Zero perceived downside, a little upside. But keep skipping, and the downside that feels invisible today comes due eventually. So the math you think you're doing, "I lose 20-30 minutes four times a week and nothing visibly bad happens," is wildly lopsided in the other direction. Just like investing in your retirement, a minor, repeated inconvenience buys you a massive upside later.

The reason we give ourselves this dangerous amount of optionality comes down to hyperbolic discounting: the tendency to value an immediate reward more than a long-term one.

Because skipping today's workout doesn't cost you anything you can feel, your brain files the long-term risk under "hypothetical." A minor tangent, I’m sure every single person who is reading this knows several people, 30 or 40 years older, who are struggling with their physical functioning. The risk is actually not a hypothetical, it is nearly certain. Without exercise, physical functioning will rapidly decline to the point where disability sets in. I’m not trying to sound scary but without intervention, that is the trajectory. 

Anyways, that hypothetical lets you believe you can just exercise tomorrow, and tomorrow keeps that illusion of safe optionality alive.. 

Nothing drains motivation like an outcome that doesn't match the expectation. And when it comes to exercise, I mostly blame fitness marketers for that mismatch. It actually drives me crazy. I grew up on this stuff, P90x- six pack in 12 weeks. Come on. They promise results, and they promise them fast.

How unsexy is it for me to tell you the truth instead? You need to do this forever, and you're still probably not getting a six-pack. But you are going to walk around Europe on a vacation in your 70s. You are going to dance at your kid's wedding. You are going to be able to get up and down off the ground to play with your grandkids. 

Exercise really isn't that effective for weight loss on its own. But we like certainty, and we like fast rewards. So of course exercise is hard. You were promised a quick payoff, didn't get it, and now your motivation for round two is already compromised, which ironically makes it harder to stick around long enough to get the very real reward consistent exercise does bring.

This is where commitment comes in. A commitment is your non-negotiable, your bright-line rule. A bright line is clear, simple, and leaves zero room for interpretation. "No dessert after dinner" is bright. I know the second I've crossed it. "Eat healthier" is fuzzy. It means nothing until you decide what it means, which is exactly when you talk yourself out of it. "Exercise at least 20 minutes, 6 days a week" is bright. "Exercise more" is fuzzy.

A commitment device is a precommitment: a choice you make today that locks in a specific action later, so you can outsmart your own hyperbolic discounting before it even shows up. It's the whole reason personal trainers exist. It's the reason your 401k comes out of your paycheck before you ever see the money.

For exercise, that looks like working with a trainer, scheduling a class, or setting a standing walk with a friend. Financial commitment contracts work too. Send a friend $50 a week with the rule that they only give it back if you exercise three times, otherwise it gets donated somewhere you'd rather it didn't go.

Two things make a commitment device actually work. First, you have to choose it voluntarily, which means being honest with yourself about the gap between your intentions and your actual behavior. 

Second, it needs real consequences. Skip the training session or the class, and something is lost, money, a friend's time, your own word.

Some commitment devices are more low-key. Temptation bundling counts: if there's a show you want to watch, the rule is the first episode only happens on the bike or the treadmill. One of my favorites is signing up for something with a fixed date. I signed up for a trail run, and knowing it's coming is the only reason I'm out there running ten-plus miles on a Saturday. Left to my own devices, with full optionality, that run never happens.

At the end of the day, we are all autonomous people, free to make any decision we want. It’s easy to operate with optionality, the cost of most of our decisions is far away. Optionality is real but you don’t need to treat it like it is. 

I’ll be the first to say, change is hard so don’t try and change everything at once. Pick one bright line, your non-negotiable and whatever it is, use a commitment device to remove some of that optionality. Sign up for a class, get a trainer if you can, ask a friend to walk with you. 

I wouldn't be running eighteen miles this Sunday (pray for me, seriously)  if I hadn't signed up for that trail run many months ago. Left to my own devices, with full optionality, that run just wouldn’t happen and all the training leading up to it wouldn’t have happened either. 

If you got something useful out of this newsletter, email me back. I read all the responses. If you are a WeightWatchers member, I do live workouts on Tuesday at 3:00pm EST. I promised if I got 500 people I would dance during a workout (a commitment device in action). I also do motivational and education talks like this on Friday at 10:30am EST. 

If you think this newsletter would help other people please consider sharing it. We’re about 60 people away from 500, a goal I’d love to hit before my daughter gets here at the end of October.

-Justin